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How the AXIS Score Works

AFRICAN X-RAY INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM · V1.0

The AXIS Score is a composite sovereignty index ranging from 0 (fully extractive) to 100 (fully sovereign). It is derived from four equally-weighted pillars that together capture how much value an African nation retains from its own resources, policies, and economic infrastructure.

Composite Formula

AXIS = 0.25 × IC + 0.25 × PI + 0.25 × CS + 0.25 × RW

IC = Infrastructure Control · PI = Policy Independence · CS = Currency Stability · RW = Resource Wealth

The Four Pillars

Infrastructure Control

WEIGHT 25 %

Measures the degree to which critical infrastructure — ports, rail, energy grids, and digital backbone — is domestically owned, operated, and financed. Higher scores indicate fewer concession agreements with external actors and greater reinvestment of infrastructure revenue into the national economy.

Key Indicators
Domestic ownership share of transport corridors
Energy grid self-sufficiency ratio
Telecom backbone local equity stake
Active infrastructure concession exposure

Policy Independence

WEIGHT 25 %

Evaluates legislative and regulatory autonomy — the ability of a government to set trade terms, mining codes, and beneficiation policies without undue external pressure. Countries that have enacted raw-material export bans or local-processing mandates score higher.

Key Indicators
Beneficiation legislation strength index
IMF / World Bank conditionality exposure
Trade agreement autonomy score
Mining code local-content requirements

Currency Stability

WEIGHT 25 %

Tracks exchange-rate volatility, dollarization risk, and central-bank reserve adequacy. A stable, convertible currency that retains purchasing power signals economic sovereignty. CFA-zone membership and currency-board constraints are factored in.

Key Indicators
12-month exchange-rate volatility (σ)
Foreign-reserve import-cover months
Dollarization / CFA-peg dependency flag
Inflation differential vs. trade partners

Resource Wealth

WEIGHT 25 %

Quantifies the breadth and strategic value of a nation's natural endowment — particularly minerals critical to the global energy transition (lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earths). This pillar does not reward extraction alone; it rewards domestic value capture from those resources.

Key Indicators
Strategic mineral diversity count
Global supply-chain share for critical minerals
In-country refining / smelting capacity
Export revenue retained domestically

Sovereignty Classifications

OPTIMAL
75–100
STABLE
60–74
IMPROVING
45–59
EXTRACTIVE
0–44

Data Sources & Disclaimer

AXIS Africa aggregates publicly available data from the African Development Bank, World Bank, IMF, LME, COMEX, LBMA, Fastmarkets, national mining ministries, and credible OSINT sources. Scores are intended as a strategic intelligence tool, not as investment advice. The trajectory projections shown in the dashboard are modeled estimates based on current trend direction, not historical measurements.

Verified Data Sources — Last Audit: April 12, 2026

  • Commodity prices — Kitco (gold), LME (cobalt/copper), SunSirs & Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (lithium), S&P Global Platts (bauxite)
  • Population figures — Worldometer 2026 estimates, cross-checked with World Population Review & UN DESA
  • FDI flows — UNCTAD World Investment Report 2025 ($59B Africa inflows)
  • Capital flight / IFFs — African Development Bank & Coalition for Dialogue on Africa ($88B/yr illicit financial flows)
  • Resource endowments — USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, national mining ministries
  • Trade corridors — AfCFTA Secretariat reports, UNCTAD bilateral trade data

© 2026 AXIS AFRICA · V1.0